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Deloitte projects an increase of 2.9% to 3.4% and sales up to $1.62 trillion in its annual holiday retail forecast. Like every year, rising costs are still a factor this holiday season. Inflation has eased, but prices remain higher than many shoppers would like, and new tariffs are beginning to push up costs for items like appliances and electronics.
Like every year, many people plan to start their holiday shopping early. Consumers will see deals well before Black Friday sales. Retailers also expect to see even more people shopping online, with e-commerce forecasted to grow 7–9%, hitting roughly $305-$311 billion.
While total spending is rising modestly, the average consumer is expected to pull back. A PwC survey shows 84% of consumers plan to cut back due to rising prices and everyday expenses. As a result, retailers may pass along higher costs, and shoppers are responding by starting earlier, focusing on essentials, and hunting for discounts to stretch their holiday budgets.
With online shopping increasing, scams will also be prevalent. According to the BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report, online shopping scams accounted for more than 30% of all scams reported to BBB Scam Tracker in 2024. Shortages and rising costs could make purchase scams even more common as desperate shoppers might turn to shady websites hoping to find this year’s must-have gift.
